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Market intelligence
Useful market analysis begins with a question that matters to a decision: what needs to be covered, over which period, and with what tolerance for uncertainty?
Start from a question that changes a decision
An overview of the market and an assessment of a specific requirement serve different purposes. The useful question may be how a generation profile relates to market prices, how a purchase exposure changes across delivery periods or which assumptions most affect a proposed structure. Defining that question first allows the analysis to focus on relevant observations and scenarios instead of producing a large collection of figures with no clear decision attached.
- The commercial question and its decision date
- Relevant observations and alternative scenarios
- The variables with a material effect
Put market signals into context
Prices should be considered alongside production patterns, demand, weather sensitivity, asset availability and network conditions. The relevance of each signal depends on the delivery horizon. A short-term adjustment and a longer-term commitment require different assumptions and a different view of uncertainty.
- Relevant market and delivery horizon
- Generation, demand and availability context
- Data source, timestamp and limitations
Work with scenarios rather than certainty
A decision framework can compare commercial outcomes under different price, output or volume assumptions. Scenarios help make exposure visible; they are not promises of future market levels. Distinguishing observations, forecasts and assumptions makes the analysis easier to review and challenge.
- Documented assumptions
- Price and volume sensitivity
- Decision points and review triggers
Translate analysis into a clear discussion
The purpose is to connect information with an actionable commercial question. A concise view of the requirement, principal exposures and available structures supports a more focused conversation. The level of analysis, update frequency and deliverables are agreed for the proposed engagement.
- A clear statement of the requirement
- An explanation of the main exposures
- A defined output and review frequency
Make the analytical output easy to use
Depending on the agreed scope, the output may be a decision note, a comparison of structures or a periodic view of defined exposures. A useful deliverable identifies its sources, reference date, assumptions and outstanding uncertainties. It also distinguishes what has been observed from what has been estimated. This supports a reviewable discussion without presenting the analysis as a trading signal, a guaranteed forecast or an instruction to execute a transaction.
- A defined format and update frequency
- Source references and explicit assumptions
- Conclusions tied to the original question
A practical starting point
What to prepare.
You do not need a perfect data room to begin. A concise description of the requirement and the information below will help focus the first conversation.
- The decision or requirement to be assessed
- Market, delivery period and volume profile
- Available data and its limitations
- Preferred reporting format
Useful questions
Before we begin.
Is a forecast a guaranteed market outcome?
No. A forecast depends on assumptions and available information. Any use should take account of uncertainty, freshness and the purpose for which it was prepared.
Is market analysis automatically included with a trade?
The scope of analysis and any reporting deliverables should be agreed explicitly. They should not be assumed to be included in every transaction.
Let’s start with your requirement.
Tell us what you need to buy, sell or structure. We will clarify the information and next steps relevant to the discussion.