Solutions / 06
Forecasting & scheduling
Production estimates, contractual positions and schedule updates need a consistent operational reference. Forecasting and scheduling are connected activities with distinct inputs, responsibilities and deadlines.
Identify the information that can change the profile
A planned outage, a revised availability estimate or incomplete interval data can change the meaning of a forecast. The input process should identify what is known, who provides updates and when a change becomes relevant to the delivery schedule. For weather-sensitive assets, the source and reference time of the underlying information also matter. A documented update process is as important to the discussion as the model or provider used.
- Asset availability and planned interruptions
- Input quality and reference timestamps
- Update ownership and handover deadlines
Define the forecast and its purpose
A forecast should identify the asset or portfolio, delivery horizon, interval resolution and assumptions on availability. Weather-sensitive production and consumption patterns can require different inputs. The quality and freshness of available data determine what can reasonably be inferred; a forecast is not a guaranteed delivery.
- Asset or portfolio definition
- Historical data, availability and assumptions
- Forecast horizon and update frequency
Connect positions with schedules
The scheduled position must be consistent with the applicable transactions and portfolio boundaries. The working arrangement should establish the party responsible for preparing, checking and submitting notifications, together with the relevant deadlines and authorised access. This responsibility is agreed explicitly before implementation.
- Contractual and traded positions
- Preparation, validation and submission roles
- Version control and applicable deadlines
Review deviations and improve the information chain
Comparing an earlier forecast with validated measurements can reveal the effect of availability, assumptions or data gaps. A review should keep forecast error distinct from the financial settlement effect. Reporting scope and any model or provider used for forecasts are established for the engagement.
- Forecast versus measured output
- Data completeness and exception review
- Documented assumptions and review actions
Review accuracy without confusing it with cost
Forecast error and imbalance cost answer different questions. A technical comparison examines the difference between an estimate and validated measurements. The financial effect also depends on the scheduled position, applicable settlement references and contractual allocation. An agreed review can examine these layers separately and identify whether a difference relates to the forecast, availability information, scheduling or data handling. This supports specific process improvements rather than a single unexplained performance figure.
- Separate technical and financial references
- Analysis by delivery interval and version
- Specific findings and review actions
A practical starting point
What to prepare.
You do not need a perfect data room to begin. A concise description of the requirement and the information below will help focus the first conversation.
- Technology and portfolio perimeter
- Historical interval data, if available
- Current forecast and schedule process
- Intended horizon and operational contacts
Useful questions
Before we begin.
Does WELLTRA promise a specific forecast accuracy?
No accuracy or service level should be assumed without an agreed scope, assessment of the input data and an explicit contractual commitment.
Who submits the relevant notifications?
The authorised responsible party under the applicable rules and agreements. Preparing data and submitting a notification are separate responsibilities.
Let’s start with your requirement.
Tell us what you need to buy, sell or structure. We will clarify the information and next steps relevant to the discussion.